Why it matters: The results of the 2024 state elections in Saxony and Thuringia mark a significant shift in Germany’s political landscape. A far-right party has won a state election for the first time, signaling potential long-term changes in regional and national politics. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) emerged as the strongest party in Thuringia and narrowly missed first place in Saxony, highlighting the growing appeal of right-wing populism in the country.

The big picture: These elections could herald a new era of political realignment in Germany. The traditional parties, particularly the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD), face declining influence in eastern Germany. The rise of the AfD, coupled with the unexpected success of the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), suggests a shift away from the established political order.

What to watch:

1. Potential Coalition Challenges: The CDU, the largest party in Saxony, faces tough choices when forming a government. Coalition options are limited, especially with the AfD’s continued exclusion from potential partnerships. Despite the inherent risks and possible backlash, the CDU might need to consider unprecedented alliances, possibly including the BSW.
2. National Implications: The AfD’s victory in Thuringia and strong performance in Saxony may embolden the party ahead of the next federal elections. The growing support for right-wing policies could force mainstream parties to recalibrate their strategies and positions on key issues such as immigration, security, and national sovereignty.
3. The Future of the Left: The dismal performance of left-leaning parties, particularly the Greens and Die Linke, raises questions about their future relevance in eastern Germany. The SPD’s slight gains in Saxony do little to mitigate its overall decline, and the Greens’ failure to pass the 5% threshold in Thuringia is a stark reminder of the challenges ahead.

Impact on Federal Politics: As the federal government navigates this new political terrain, the success of the AfD and BSW could significantly influence policy debates and legislative priorities. The federal government may face increased pressure from the right on issues like immigration, EU relations, and national security, underscoring the urgency and significance of the situation.

Between the lines: The success of the AfD and the BSW reflects a broader dissatisfaction with the status quo. Both parties capitalized on widespread discontent with the federal government’s policies, particularly in economically struggling regions of eastern Germany. This trend underscores the growing intensity and division in German politics, where traditional centrist positions are increasingly under pressure from both the right and the populist left.

The bottom line: The 2024 state elections in Saxony and Thuringia are a turning point for German politics with far-reaching implications. As the country grapples with the rise of right-wing populism and the fragmentation of the left, the coming months will be crucial in determining how Germany’s political landscape will evolve.